ПОЛІВЕКТОРНА СЦЕНАРНО-ПРОГНОЗНА МОДЕЛЬ РЕКОНСТРУКТИВНО-ПРОСТОРОВОГО РОЗВИТКУ УКРАЇНИ У ПОВОЄННОМУ ПЕРІОДІ

Victoriia Victoriia; Marharyta Chuprina

doi:10.56197/2786-5827/2025-4-1-1

Authors

Victoriia Victoriia Institute of Demography and Quality of Life of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8212-9777
Marharyta Chuprina National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute” https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3276-4473

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56197/2786-5827/2025-4-1-1

Keywords:

polyvector scenario-forecast model, reconstructive-spatial development, hybrid scenario, economic system, forecast format

Abstract

Introduction. The post-war period in Ukraine will require a rethinking of approaches to the spatial reconstruction of the economic system, taking into account socio-ecological and economic challenges, which will involve the identification of new centers for the localization of efforts, the formation of stable interregional ties, the optimization of resources, the integration of innovative management tools, the implementation of a hybrid reconstruction scenario, the formation communication space. The use of multi-vector scenario-forecasting approaches allows for a comprehensive assessment of the multidimensional structure of the system and prospective scenarios of its transformation in a dynamic risk environment. This management format takes into account international obligations, requirements for sustainable development and the specifics of macro-regions, creating the basis for the development of long-term programs of reconstructive and spatial development of the country until 2030 based on predictive multi-level dynamic model solutions.

Materials and methods. Scientific publications, statistical data and official sources, analytical, multifaceted research methods (systemic and interdisciplinary analysis, scenario and predictive analysis, structural-functional modeling, etc.) became the theoretical and methodological basis of the research.

Results and discussion. The article substantiates the stages of formation and implementation of the polyvector scenario-prognostic model of reconstructive-spatial development of the economic system. A systematic combination of tools and methods with temporal parameters of spatial reconstruction and restoration is provided. The properties and features of the applied toolkit of the predictive format of the hybrid scenario of spatial regeneration are revealed, the cognitive and informational mechanisms of the development of the communication space are presented, which contribute to adaptive and sustainable spatial development and management at the post-crisis stage of the state's functioning. The mathematical polystructure of the scenario-prognostic model of reconstructive-spatial development is formalized, which is presented in the form of a multi-level dynamic system that integrates hybrid strategies, mechanisms for each of the eight stages of implementation, cognitive and informational approaches to the harmonization of interests, multi-criteria objective functions taking into account post-crisis restrictions.

Conclusions. The theoretical and methodological basis of the formation of a polyvector scenario-prognostic model of the reconstructive-spatial development of Ukraine in the post-war period has been developed. The proposed typology of scenarios made it possible to form a multi-level toolkit of a predictive format, taking into account the post-conflict specifics and features of the territorial structure of the economy, ensuring the integration of socio-ecological-economic, technological and institutional factors, promoting adaptation to dynamic conditions, optimizing resources and increasing the stability of the economic system. The formalized model is presented as a multi-level dynamic system taking into account hybrid scenarios, cognitive-informational mechanisms and multi-criteria functions, which creates a scientifically based platform for spatial and adaptive transformation of the country.

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