AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FROM UKRAINE TO THE EU: FORECASTS, LIMITATIONS AND CHALLENGES

Abstract

Introduction. The development of exports of certain agricultural products to the EU from Ukraine is influenced by trade regimes and competition with local producers and importers on the EU markets. Changes in trade regimes imply introduction of the autonomous trade preferences in the form of the suspension of import duties and quotas for Ukrainian exports to the EU from 2022, which are extended and modified annually. Also, in 2023 EU and MERCOSUR renewed negotiations on the Association Agreement that was announced in 2019. Successful completion of these negotiations leads to the risks of weakening of the competitive position of Ukrainian agricultural products on EU markets.

The purpose of the article is to develop forecasts for the export of agricultural goods from Ukraine to the EU under the restrictions of the EU's autonomous trade preferences for the import of domestic goods and to assess the risks of the development of domestic exports to the EU in case of implementation of the EU-MERCOSUR Association Agreement.

Materials and methods. The research was conducted using economic and statistical methods, methods of comparison, analysis and synthesis, and a systematic approach. The information base of the research includes works of foreign and Ukrainian scientists, documents, statistical data and forecasts of the European Commission, the World Trade Organization, and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the UN Comtrade database and the MERCOSUR database.

Results and discussion. If the European Commission accepts the proposed "emergency brake" mechanism to stabilize the import of poultry meat from Ukraine and tariff quotas for the import of poultry meat from MERCOSUR are introduced, the volume of poultry meat exports from MERCOSUR will exceed the volume of exports from Ukraine in 2030. The share of MERCOSUR in the import of poultry meat to the EU may increase from 8.3% in 2022 to 27.4% in 2030, and the share of Ukraine will not exceed 16.1%.

Also, in case of introduction of the "emergency brake" mechanism to stabilize the import of corn from Ukraine to the EU and implementation of the EU-MERCOSUR Agreement, there will be a significant increase in competition on the EU market between Ukrainian and Brazilian corn, and Ukrainian corn will have a competitive price advantage. However, given the forecasted decrease in corn imports to the EU until 2030, there is a high possibility that despite the MERCOSUR tariff quota and Ukraine's autonomous trade preferences, the volume of exports of both Ukrainian and Brazilian corn to the EU will decrease.

Conclusions. The "emergency brake" mechanism with the goal to stabilize the import of certain agricultural goods from Ukraine to the EU will lead to preserving of the volume of Ukrainian exports to the EU at the level of 2022-2023, which, in case the EU-MERCOSUR Association Agreement is signed, ratified and implemented, will lead to partial replacement of Ukrainian exports on the EU market by Brazilian export within six years transition period. In particular, corn and poultry markets will be impacted, as Brazil possess leading role in the world trade in these goods.